Percepção de riscos ambientais e capacidade adaptativa às mudanças climáticas em sistemas socioecológicos no semiárido brasileiro

Abstract

The current emergence of climate change is an unquestionable reality, whose future projections are terrible. Agroecosystems located in semi-arid regions are identified as one of the most vulnerable to changes in climate, affecting both the natural landscape and the lifestyle of local human populations. These people, in turn, by directly depending on the natural resources offered for their survival, in addition to being more sensitive and exposed to the adverse effects of environmental changes, may come to realize more quickly the changes that have occurred in the environment and, consequently, develop adaptive strategies in order to mitigate the negative effects arising from these changes. Based on these premises, this thesis sought to investigate the perception of risk, in agroecosystems and human health (diseases), by small farmers in socio-ecological systems in the Brazilian semi-arid region in the face of extreme climate change events, as well as adaptive strategies adopted locally, and how different factors may be driving this process. We therefore structured this thesis around two investigative axes – 1) Effects of climate change on agro-ecosystems; and 2) Effects of climate change on human health - which presented hypotheses related to the impact of climate change on socioecological systems in the semiarid region. The first axis corresponded to the chapter Perceptions of risks related to climate change in agroecosystems in a semi-arid region of Brazil, whose study, developed in rural communities in the Catimbau National Park (located between the agreste and sertão, Pernambuco State). The second axis, in turn, corresponded to the chapter Farmers’ perceptions of the effects of extreme environmental changes on their health: a study in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, whose research, carried out in rural communities from the Catimbau National Park and the rural community of Carão (Altinho Municipality, Pernambuco State). Data collection – socioeconomic data, years with the highest incidence of extreme weather events (droughts and prolonged rains), perceived risks (environmental risks, and diseases) and adaptive strategies developed – occurred between July 2018 and September 2019, with adults (over 18 years of age), and were made using different techniques and methods, such as censuses, semi-structured interviews, free lists and Participatory Risk Mapping, which allowed us to access and quantitatively assess the environmental risks perceived by people. Our results showed that: a) experience in agriculture and previous experience with risk situations explains the amount of environmental risks perceived by farmers; b) the number of times a risk is perceived and the severity attributed to it explains the number of adaptive responses developed to mitigate it; c) the incidence and severity attributed to the perceived diseases together explain the frequency of adaptive strategies used to deal with their effects. Finally, we believe that our study may enable a greater understanding of the degree of vulnerability of socio-ecological systems in semi-arid regions, which may enable actions at different scales, aiming to mitigate the effects of climate changes, and their impacts on the people's way of life.