Aplicação dos modelos lineares generalizados na modelagem da produção leiteira no agreste meridional pernambucano

Abstract

Dairy cattle farming in Agreste Meridional has great economic and social importance for the development of livestock in Pernambuco, being considered one of the most sensitive sectors as climatic instability. The objective of the work was to study how climatic conditions and other external factors influence the production of cow's milk in the municipalities that make the region of Agreste Meridional Pernambuco. Separation data was collected from 2010 to 2018, through the Agronomic Institute of Pernambuco - IPA, and annual milk production data from 2010 to 2018 on the IBGE website, as well as data from family farming adapters and cooperatives and / or associations. To better assess the relationship between the explanatory variables and the response variable, a class of Generalized Linear models is used considering the production of cow's milk as the response variable. The results found showed that in 2012, a year of extreme drought, the average milk production fell by 36% in the region. In addition, it was found that the number of specifications that meet milk and participate in family farming were responsible for 61% of the average milk production in Agreste Meridional and that 57.7% of the municipalities have cooperatives and / or associations of milk production and a higher average milk production compared to municipalities that did not have cooperatives and / or associations.