Das estatísticas espaciais, Krigagem e Gi* de Getis-Ord, na interpolação de dados e análise de Clusters em dados de qualidade de leite e raiva bovina

Abstract

The objectives of this work were to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of nervous diseases in cattle, identifying the presence of hot spot and cold spot of concentration of cases, to search for associations that explain the occurrence and to estimate the dynamics of the disease over time, in the period 2005-2018 and the spatial variability of the composition of chilled raw milk and to elaborate maps with interpolation of data of the physical-chemical specifications of the milk, in the state of Alagoas and in the mesoregion of Agreste Pernambucano, in 2014 and 2015 and Records of 30,929 were analyzed notifications of nervous diseases throughout Brazil included in the Continental Epidemiological Surveillance System (SivCont), from 2005 to 2018 and 3,863 official reports of refrigerated raw milk samples, collected from 432 tanks of direct expansion in the studied region. Regarding the species affected among the confirmed cases of rabies, the main one was bovine with 8,977 (85.43%) cases, followed by the equine species with 1,143 cases (10.87%). All other species had a relative frequency below 1%. Finally, it is concluded that there is spatial variability for fat, lactose, protein, total solids and defatted dry extract of chilled raw milk produced in the state of Alagoas and in the mesoregion of Agreste Pernambucano and that rabies in cattle is persistent in the country, with variations over time and that, if the surveillance measures do not change, the tendency is for the number of cases to remain constant in a short time. In addition, the variables that are considered to explain the occurrence of rabies cases in the literature and by the PNCRH have little or no influence, requiring future studies that aim to identify variables that better explain the occurrence of rabies cases in Brazil. The degree of spatial dependence and geographically weighted regression and the Gi * method of Getis-Ord of the variables were analyzed by the ArcGIS 10.3 software, the other statistical and transition matrix analyzes were performed using the software and R Studio 3.5.1, with the markovchain package. The spatial analysis showed a predominance of areas with fat content from 3.1 to 3.6g / 100g and areas with fat content from 3.6 to 4.2g / 100g. For the lactose content, a predominant area was observed with 4.32 to 4.45g / 100g and some areas with 4.46 to 4.54g / 100g. There was a low influence of altitude, rainfall and precipitation x altitude interaction on the fat, protein, lactose, total solids and defatted dry matter content in the studied area.