Análise espaço-temporal do número de casos de dengue em Pernambuco, Brasil: modelagem e métodos computacionais

Abstract

The present study aimed to analyze the Spatio-temporal distribution in the weekly dengue cases number for Pernambuco state, Brazil. Weekly records of the dengue cases number were collected, made available through the Citizen Information Service, and the historical series of weekly precipitation provided by the Pernambuco Agency for Water and Climate, in the period 2000 to 2018. To assess the correlation between the variables (dengue versus pecipitation), the Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated and the generalized linear models were proceeded. In the state of Pernambuco were confirmed 508,948 dengue cases from 2000 to 2018. The spatial distribution of cases showed a high concentration in the Metropolitan Mesoregion of Recife in the 19 years analyzed, with greater frequency from Recife municipality. There was formation of clusters with positive spatial autocorrelation between municipalities in the Metropolitan Mesoregion of Recife. Positive correlations were observed in 75.54% of the municipalities. The Negative Binomial model proves to be satisfactory to analyze the distribution of dengue cases. The computerized processing of georeferenced data allows identifying municipalities with greater vulnerabilities, providing subsidies for the regulatory agencies of epidemics and endemics in the state of Pernambuco to plan their actions.