Clima e crime : os efeitos da seca nas taxas de criminalidade de Pernambuco

Abstract

The climatic conditions of a region can influence some socioeconomic indicators, such as, for example, crime. In this sense, the present research describes the mechanisms that can from the variations of climate, expressed by the level of pluviometric precipitation (through the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI), identify how the crime rates in the municipalities of Pernambuco can be affected by the occurrence drought. It is noteworthy that the state of Pernambuco suffered a severe drought between the years 2012 and 2016, resulting in one of the longest periods of drought in recent decades. This scarcity scenario led to striking economic, social and environmental stresses, which may have caused the displacement of the population's routine activities, including the incidence of crimes. Thus, through econometric strategies of the spatial panel, the present study contains estimates of the direct and indirect effects of drought on crime, particularly the rate of violent crimes against property. The observed results were statistically significant and point out that the greater the intensity of the drought, there is an increase in crime in the state.