Modelagem de distribuição do complexo de espécies Thamnophilus punctatus (aves, thamnophilidae) : uma linhagem de florestas secas dos neotrópicos

Abstract

Several studies show that climate change has been accelerating due to human activities and this has caused great loss of biodiversity. Modeling studies provide information on how species have reacted in the past to intense climate change and can be used to understand the degree of biota susceptibility and response to current and future climate change. This work aimed to determine the effects of climate changes and landscape modifications on the geographic distribution of the species complex Thamnophilus punctatus, a bird line with wide distribution in dry forests in the Neotropical region. For this, we model the geographical distribution of this bird during the Last Glacial Maximum and during the current period. In addition, two mitochondrial genes (CO1 and ND2) were sequenced to determine population demographic and genetic diversity parameters. A total of 10 climate suitability models were generated taking into account the two climatic scenarios from the Maxent program. The generated models obtained values of AUC> 0.9. When comparing the two scenarios we can conclude that there was an increase in climatically adequate areas for two species (Thamnophilus pelzelni and Thamnophilus sticturus) and decrease for other species (Thamnophilus ambiguus, Thamnophilus punctatu and Thamnophilus stictocephalus). Population demography analyzes of the neutrality tests, Fu and D Fs indices of Tajima, and Mismatch Distribution suggest that T .ambiguus, T. pelzeni and T. punctatus underwent population expansion events, already for T. stictocephalus and T. sticturus showed stable populations. This suggests that depending on the environment in which each species occurs responses to climate change may differ. The results of this study can be used to understand how species of the T. punctatus complex will respond to future climatic events, as well as help to better understand the biogeographic events and help to plan future management plans in the implementation of conservation areas more efficient.