Análise de viabilidade, risco e eficiência da inserção da tecnologia de bioflocos para o cultivo do camarão marinho Litopenaeus vannamei no Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

Biofloc Technology (BFT) is considered an alternative, sustainable culture system of the marine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei. However, there are doubts about its financial return in the short and long period of time, as well as uncertainties regarding losses caused by variations in major economic items and shrimp performance. The Thesis evaluated the economic viability, risk and the efficiency of BFT in comparison to a conventional system of a shrimp farm located in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Data for the BFT and conventional farming systems were obtained from 9 production cycles in three 625 m2 ponds lined with HDPE and 12 production cycles in the farm’s conventional ponds, respectively. Viability indicators were favorable for both systems, with greater expressiveness of net present value (NPV) for the BFT (R$ 353,591.00) and internal rate of return (IRR) 4.5 times greater for the conventional (131.86%). When used the Monte Carlo Method (MMC) it was found to BFT system the failure probability of 7%, 10% and 15% when combined with a discount rate of 10%, 13% and 16% respectively. According the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) four productions cycles (7.0%) were classified as technically efficient on the farm over the years 2013 and 2014. There was significant difference in the average technical efficiency scores of production systems. There was greater influence of management on the conventional system efficiency, while the production scale was the factor to influence the reduction of the average technical efficiency score of BFT system. The works provide useful information to improve the L. vannamei culture and give greater security to the investment in the BFT system by producers in the Northeast region of Brazil. Both culture systems represent important investment alternatives for the rural sector of Brazil, confirmed by the favorable results of profitability and viability.