Determinantes do crescimento de produção do milho brasileiro a partir da segunda década do século XXI : um estudo da sustentabilidade econômica deste crescimento

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the causes of the increase of Brazilian corn production, from the second decade of this century and its economic sustainability in the medium term. Using secondary data produced by national and international agencies, public and private, it was studied the sustainability of the strong growth trend started at the beginning of the first decade of this century using prospective scenarios. It was found that the advance of technology used in the production of corn, as well as the improvement of their management has raised the cereal productivity, enabling the creation of excess with costs that allow its sale in foreign markets. Thus, Brazilian corn exports are responding to the global demand for a cereal which consumption has been growing in recent decades, due to the increase in world population and animal protein consumption, in which corn takes very important role. In addition, demand in the foreign market grew due to the North American polices to devote much of their corn production to biofuel production. This new configuration of the world market creates space for brazilian exports to the markets, such as: Taiwan, Indonesia, Yemen, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and others. Both Brazil and other corn producers have room to continue performing significant exports, as domestic demand for the product in the United States for biofuel production continues to increase, as well as the production of feed for livestock and human consumption. The study concluded that growth started in the beginning of the current decade is economically sustainable, at least in the medium term, however, there is an urgent need to diversify the states’ corn production in the country, since only two states Mato Grosso and Paraná account for about half of the production and more than half of the national cereal exports. Therefore, any climate change in one of the states will have a considerable impact on production and export of this period. On the other hand, the reduction in cost Brazil, could reduce costs incurred in and out of corn chain production, making it more competitive in the international corn market.