O desempenho na governança pública municipal e a reeleição nos municípios de Pernambuco

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of municipal public governance on the reelection of mayors in the state of Pernambuco. It begins by strengthening regulatory frameworks related to governance practices and the potential relationship between these practices and political cycles, more specifically, with reelection. Studies on the relationship between governance indices and reelection lack consensus. Thus, the study aims to answer the following question: What is the influence of municipal public governance performance on the reelection of mayors? A quantitative ex-post facto design was employed, incorporating descriptive analysis and logistic regression for two electoral cycles: 2017–2020 and 2021–2024. Data from the Federal Council of Administration's Municipal Governance Index (IGM-CFA) for the period 2017–2024 and results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for the years 2020 and 2024 were used. The study population consisted of municipalities whose incumbents ran for reelection, specifically 112 in 2020 and 87 in 2024. The main variables were the variations (Δ) in the IGM-CFA and each dimension (Finance, Management, and Performance) between the first and last years of the term. Controls included GDP per capita and population (in terms of the number of inhabitants). The results partially support the hypotheses. A statistically significant influence of the IGM-CFA variation was identified from 2017 to 2020, with a substantial increase (127.2%) in the likelihood of reelection for mayors in cases where the index showed a positive evolution throughout the term. This effect was not repeated in the 2021–2024 cycle. Regarding the variation in dimensions, the data revealed that the variation in Finance exerted a positive influence on the 2020 reelection. In contrast, in the 2021–2024 cycle, the data analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship. The conclusion is that the relationship between the positive variation in the IGM-CFA and mayoral reelection was partially confirmed, with evidence only in the 2017–2020 cycle and in the Finance dimension. The analysis suggests that institutional performance, measured by this index, can contribute to understanding the reelection phenomenon, although this influence is not uniform across the analyzed cycles. The contributions include evidence on the link between municipal governance and electoral performance, the identification of fiscal performance as a possible driver of political competitiveness, and the delivery of a technical and technological product (PTT) to support managers in monitoring and improving governance.